Read the case study “The Estimating Problem” on page 734 and then answer the questions on page 735.
Note: DISCUSSIONS
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THE ESTIMATING PROBLEM1
Barbara just received the good news: She was assigned as the project manager for a project
that
her company won as part of competitive bidding. Whenever a request for proposal (RFP) comes
into Barbara’s company, a committee composed mainly of senior managers reviews the RFP. If
the decision is made to bid on the job, the RFP is turned over to the Proposal Department. Part
of the Proposal Department is an estimating group that is responsible for estimating all work.
If the estimating group has no previous history concerning some of the deliverables or work
packages and is unsure about the time and cost for the work, the estimating team will then ask
the functional managers for assistance with estimating.
Project managers like Barbara do not often participate in the bidding process. Usually,
their first knowledge about the project comes after the contract is awarded to their company
and they are assigned as the project manager. Some project managers are highly optimistic and
trust the estimates that were submitted in the bid implicitly unless, of course, a significant span
of time has elapsed between the date of submittal of the proposal and the final contract award
date. Barbara, however, is somewhat pessimistic. She believes that accepting the estimates as
they were submitted in the proposal is like playing Russian roulette. As such, Barbara prefers
to review the estimates.
One of the most critical work packages in the project was estimated at twelve weeks using
one grade 7 employee full time. Barbara had performed this task on previous projects and it
required one person full time for fourteen weeks. Barbara asked the estimating group how they
arrived at this estimate. The estimating group responded that they used the three-point estimate
where the optimistic time was four weeks, the most likely time was thirteen weeks, and the
pessimistic
time was sixteen weeks.
Barbara believed that the three-point estimate was way off of the mark. The only way that
this work package could ever be completed in four weeks would be for a very small project
nowhere near the complexity of Barbara’s project. Therefore, the estimating group was not
considering
any complexity factors when using the three-point estimate. Had the estimating group
used the triangular distribution where each of the three estimates had an equal likelihood of
occurrence, the final estimate would have been thirteen weeks. This was closer to the fourteen
weeks that Barbara thought the work package would take. While a difference of 1 week seems
small, it could have a serious impact on Barbara’s project and incur penalties for late delivery.
Barbara was now still confused and decided to talk to Peter, the employee that was
assigned to do this task. Barbara had worked with Peter on previous projects. Peter was a
grade
9 employee and considered to be an expert in this work package. As part of the discussions with
Barbara, Peter made the following comments:
I have seen estimating data bases that include this type of work package and they all estimate
the work package at about 14 weeks. I do not understand why our estimating group
prefers to use the three point estimate.
“Does the typical data base account for project complexity when considering the estimates?”
asked Barbara. Peter responded:
Some data bases have techniques for considering complexity, but mostly they just assume
an average complexity level. When complexity is important, as it is in our project, analogy
estimating would be better. Using analogy estimating and comparing the complexity of the
work package on this project to the similar works packages I have completed, I would say
that 16–17 weeks is closer to reality, and let’s hope I do not get removed from the project
to put out a fire somewhere else in the company. That would be terrible. It is impossible
for me to get it done in 12 weeks. And adding more people to this work package will not
shorten the schedule. It may even make it worse.
Barbara then asked Peter one more question:
Peter, you are a grade 9 and considered as the subject matter expert. If a grade 7 had been
assigned, as the estimating group had said, how long would it have taken the grade 7 to do
the job?
“Probably about 20 weeks or so,” responded Peter.
QUESTIONS
1. How many different estimating techniques were discussed in the case?
2. If each estimate is different, how does a project manager decide that one estimate is
better than another?
3. If you were the project manager, which estimate would you use?
Case Study 735
Sandeep Karla
Discussion_4
1 day ago
The Estimating Problem
1. How many different estimating techniques were discussed in this case?
From the case study there are 2 cases being discussed as per the estimating techniques. as per my understanding 1 is the 3 point estimating where is this method is utilized to analyze the method of understanding implanted inside a guage. in this strategy. three evaluations are produced for the venture actually utilizing 3 unique arrangements. second is the analogous estimation technique comparing to the estimation the system which utilize the estimations of parameters form the available information. the fallowing parameters are taken into consideration that is the scope, cost and term in this kind of estimation.
Some of the more common techniques for estimating project activities and their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques will include Analogous, Parametric Modeling, 3 Point Estimate, Expert Judgment, Published Data Estimates, Vendor Bid Analysis ,Reserve Analysis, Bottom Up Analysis, and Simulation. A discussion of estimating the cost of completing a project that is underway is addressed in the page on Earned Value Analysis. Finally, I will discuss how to estimate a project when the key boundary condition is the End Date or the Total Cost of the project and the effort is tailored to fit this constraint.
2. If each estimate is different, how does a project manager decide that one estimate is better than another?
Accurate estimation is a challenging task for every project manager in the scheduled activity of every project. The best basis for accurate estimates is to obtain the aggregate data from the company’s previous projects. The next best basis for accurate estimation the manager would be following is too estimate the project stakeholders and team members who are experienced with similar projects to do the estimates. The project `uses their knowledge and experience and employs techniques like three-point estimating to produce accurate estimate data. Project manager decide which estimate is better than other based on estimating a stetting schedules, establishing budgets, managing resources and running a thriving team and business. based on which estimate can provide these more precisely can be identified as better estimate.
3 . If you were the project manager, which estimate would you use?
As a project manager i would be preferring to use the bottom up estimation as it has the estimation used when there is huge insight about the movement. A point-by-point evaluation of the assets, abilities, and sums are used to decide an cost evaluate. As this is the most precise strategy that is being used. If I am a project manager I would choose analogy estimate. Analogy estimate is carried out based on data on the project. It has the potential to substantially increase the organization’s project success rate from raising incrementally. it is much better than using pretend numbers that are politically attractive at the beginning of the project but disastrous at the end.
Project Estimation should consider validation of project performance as measured against the plan for purposes of evaluating estimate accuracy and ensuring proper methodology is utilized. Metrics based on comparison of project estimates and corresponding actuals should also be utilized when making decisions regarding estimates of remaining or future work.
References
Kerzner, H. (2013). Project management: A systems approach to planning, scheduling, and controlling. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
George, pitagorsky. (2017). Failed projects: who is responsible?. Retrieved from
https://www.projecttimes.com/george-pitagorsky/failed-projects-who-is-responsible.html
1: what number distinctive estimating systems were talked about for the situation?
Inside the case, I have to make sense of it three estimation method that was used. They join In those for all intents and purposes comparable to estimation technobabble the place a valid errand that looks current one assignment is utilized, Furthermore is the data base estimation frameworks and At last those Three-point estimation procedures which depend once both triangular scattering and the conventional estimation framework.
2: If each estimate is different, how does a project manager decide that one estimate is better than another?
For choosing an estimating method, it will be basic that an overseer perceives a couple of factors. That overgrown glass oak crucial To start with is that the organization staff has on pondered those specific Characteristics of the venture with being surveyed. To case, to wanders for higher dangers, to the example, parametric estimation technique will be perfect since it will bode well to use an estimation inspiration with chronicled data for estimation. Such A system is additionally inspirational position On account it utilizes the recorded data same time it offers correct dissection.A few of different components that I will consider fusing the venture measure As far as degree, the artfulness level required Toward the task, the measure of the value of exertion endeavors, how mind boggling those endeavor deliverable’s need help and the available resources that need help obliged Toward those undertakings. As far back as learning for various endeavors for the affiliation will make furthermore an idea variable.
3: If you were the project manager, which estimate would you use?
Subordinate upon the group of confirmation think about, Likewise the wander executive I will need to use the Wide-Band Delphi estimation methodology. As expressed by those case, the wander might bewilder and along these lines obliges that is just a hint of a greater challenge experience. Consequently, this strategy will incorporate utilizing those experiences from laborers who require help familiar with the endeavor expectations through past experiences. These procedures will an opportunity to be likewise useful since it will engage me on furthermore incorporate the errand amass who might with the value of exertion on the wander from the earliest starting point period.This will in like manner help Previously, Building a strong relationship Toward coordinating, including these partners Also ensuring that those endeavor gauges require help correct recognizing the occasion case for the appropriation.
Reference:
Kerzner, H. (2013). Venture administration: a frameworks way to deal with arranging, booking, and controlling. John Wiley and Sons.