EAT2S19
Analysis of the Global Business Cycle
Macroeconomics
, Spring 2019
Empirical Adventure Teams: Part 2
Situation: You just finish a session in Feeeeeeeelings 101. The hour was spent interpreting a haiku, a process that involved a volunteer reading the haiku, the class forming circlets to discuss emotional reactions to the haiku, with each circlet reporting their collective feeeeeeeelings to the class, followed with a reaction writing assignment where you analyze those feeeeeeeelings that resonate most strongly with your own feeeeeeeelings, which will then be reported to the class, new circlet’s formed… It’s only week 5 of the quarter and already your eyes are glazed, brain cells numbed from disuse. Stumbling toward the PUB, you contemplate the possibility the damage is irreversible…
Finding an open table, you sit, pull out graph paper, pen, and calculator, then begin wilding writing out asymptotic functions, defining X as emotion and Y brain cell loss. Your work indicates that by June you will approach a limiting value for total brain cell destruction. As you begin contemplating what this will mean for career possibilities, Half Brain wanders up. “No!!!” you scream. Half Brain jumps, looking over his shoulder. “Da, what wrong, huh?” You wipe a tear from left eye, wondering if it’s some sort of dissolved left-brain ooze discharge. Half Brain sits, head tilted to the right, looks at you real concerned, then says “ “I listened to Jusht A. Dumbaugh on da am and he bee da smartest man on urth.” “Why’s that?” you ask. “Cuz he say so everyday so it bee true and today he say dat Redumblicans bee good for economy stuff and dat Dunnocrads bee real bad and dat everyone with half a brain no dis cuz it true and if’in u disagree it cuz you bee a Dunnocrad and all Dunnocrads are stewped and all Redumblicans bee real smart cuz dey listen to Jusht everyday to learn truth and cuz Jusht is da smartest man on urth he knows…”
Suddenly you feel – a physical response! – the left side of your brain surge, flexing with analytical power. You jump up and grab a startled Half Brain by the arm. “Come with me Half Brain, let’s head over to the library and put Jusht A. Dumbaugh to the scientific test.” “What dat,” he cries out, rubbing his arm, as you sit down at an open computer. Pawsing just a moment at the key board, you look at him and say “Science: systemized knowledge of the world derived using observation, hypawthesis, experimentation…” Half Brain interrupts saying “Oh dat, yep, I no dat, educating guesses, right?” You roll your eyes, say “Yeah, right,” then mutter “A Feeeeeeeelings major.”
Assignment:
For the period 1956 to the present (2018), find data for real and nominal GDP, energy (oil), unemployment, investment, consumption and inflation. Create “tear drop” graphs for these and
other
pertinent values to analyze the business cycle. Mark intervals for Republican and Democratic Presidencies. Consider rates of change in values when conducting your analysis. Use the data to test Dumbaugh’s hypawthesis. T
otally
explain your empirical findings.
Your report (Word or pdf) is due via Canvas Wednesday, May, 22, at 8:00 am, UST!