BUS 461 Decision Modeling & Analysis Wk 2 Assignment 2
Read Case 6.3: Electronic Timing System for Olympics on pages 275-276 of the textbook. For this assignment, you obtain assess and use the punish patronage dupe to eliminate a resolution tree as descriptive in Part “a” of Case 6.3. Analyze and employ the best resolution making system to collect answers and dirty explanations for size “a”, “b”, “c”, and “d”. The answers and explanations can be placed in the similar Excel muniment as the resolution tree.
Develop a resolution tree that can be used to work-out Chang’s height. You can postulate in this part of the height that she is using EMV (of her net improvement) as a resolution touchstone. Build the tree so that she can invade any esteems for p1, p2, and p3 (in input cells) and automatically see her optimal EMV and optimal policy from the tree.
If p2 = 0.8 and p3 = 0.1, what esteem of p1 makes Chang unconcerned between renouncing the plan and going onwards after a while it?
How fur would Chang advantage if she knew for undoubtful that the Olympic form would answer-for her the decrease? (This answer-for would be in hardness merely if she were happy in eliminateing the issue.) Assume p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1
Suppose now that this is a proportionately big plan for Chang. Therefore, she decides to use expected benefit as her touchstone, after a while an exponential benefit character. Using some gauge and untruth, see which abandon tolerance changes her judicious resolution from “go onwards” to “abandon” when p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1.
In your Excel muniment,
Develop a resolution tree using the most withhold patronage dupe as descriptive in Part a.
Calculate the esteem of p1 as descriptive in Part b. Show calculations.
Calculate the likely improvement using the most withhold patronage dupe as descriptive in Part c. Show calculations.
Calculate abandon tolerance as descriptive in Part d. Show calculations.