For the Unit VIII assignment, please refer to Section 5.4 of the text. (See attachment). Assignment is due MONDAY.

For the Unit VIII assignment, please refer to Section 5.4 of the text. (See attachment). The assignment is due MONDAY.

5.4 Measures of Forecast Accuracy We discuss several different forecasting models in this chapter. To see how well one model works, or to compare that model with other models, the forecast values are compared with the actual or observed values. The forecast error (or deviation) is defined as follows: Forecast error  =  Actual  value   −   Forecast value Forecast error = Actual value − Forecast value One measure of accuracy is the mean absolute deviation (MAD). This is computed by taking the sum of the absolute values of the individual forecast errors and dividing by the numbers of errors (n):

MAD  =   Σ   |   forecast error |

  n

Instructions

For the Unit VIII assignment, please refer to Section

5

.

4

of the text.

Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have made landfall on the coast somewhere near their city of Johnstown in the past

1

1 years. Monica notes that forecasted landfall has been different from actual observed landfall as shown in the table below.

5

2

5

11

12

8

12

6

9

How accurate has the forecast been? Do you think this difference matters to a beach town? Can you develop a forecasting system model that may be more accurate?

Explain your methodology and ideas in a paper of at least four pages. Be sure to research sources to support your ideas, and integrate the sources using APA-formatted citations and matching reference lists. Additionally, use Times New Roman 12pt. double-spaced font.

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