5hours

Assignment 2:

Instructions

Pioneer Aircraft Co. sells private, single-engine planes. Most sales are for customers engaged in private and leisure flying. In a 50-week period, sales in the past five years have averaged to the following:

PLANES SOLD WEEKS THIS NUMBER SOLD

0 40

1 8

2 1

3 1

In a three-page essay, determine the items below:

Determine the probability of each number of planes sold—of 0, 1, 2, 3—in a 50-week period. (Pioneer sales office is closed the other two weeks of the year.)

Decide what approach is best used to determine probability. Distinguish between the approaches to make it clear that the approach used was the best fit for these airplane sales.

Determine if the approach would change if we also needed to track sales of some planes with GPS installed.

Be sure to provide research to support your ideas. Use APA style, and cite and reference your sources to avoid plagiarism.

Resources

PIONEER AIRCRAFT COMPANY 2

PIONER AIRCRAFT COMPANY 6

Pioneer Aircraft Company

Amara Fofana

United States Army Sergeants Major Academy

Methods of Analysis for Business Operations

MSL 5080

Mrs. Martha Stanislas

December 7, 2016

Running head: PIONEER AIRCRAFT COMPANY 1

Pioneer Aircraft Company

Pioneer Aircraft Company is closed two weeks out of the year; we understand that out of the 52 weeks in the year, the company is in business for 50 weeks. With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 0 planes sold per week, there was 40 times in the year (Render, Stair, Hanna & Hale, 2015). The probability for the company to sell zero planes per week is equal to 40 weeks divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .8. Therefore, the probability for zero planes per week to be sold is .8 in a 50-week period.

With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 1 planes sold per week, there was 8 times in the year. The probability for the company to sell one plane per week is equal to 8 weeks divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .16. Therefore, the probability for one plane per week to be sold is .16 in a 50-week period.

With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 2 planes sold per week, there was one time in the year. The probability for the company to sell two planes per week is equal to 1 week divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .02. Therefore, the probability for two planes per week to be sold is .02 in a 50-week period.

With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 3 planes sold per week, there was one time in the year. The probability for the company to sell three planes per week is equal to 1 week divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .02. Therefore, the probability for three planes per week to be sold is .02 in a 50-week period.

We utilize the relative frequency approach because we note that the idea of the relative frequency of an event and the models of long-term behavior play a very important role. We used a “frequency approach” to the probability of an event based on the observation of the relative frequency convergence for this event in repeated random trials in order to understand both the short-term unpredictability of the phenomena Randomness and the long-term regularity that probability describes (United, 2013). Moreover, this frequentist approach will be useful in providing an approximation of a real probability, thanks to a sufficiently large sample: We will be able to compare the empirical results obtained by the observation of the frequencies and the theoretical results obtained by the approach. Observing a divergence may help them to become aware of a misconception. A fundamental ensemble experiment Ω is executed several times under the same conditions. For each event E of Ω, n (E) is the number of times that the event E occurs during the first n repetitions of the experiment (Pons, 2012). Some inconveniences are that it is not known if n (E) will converge to a constant limit, which will be the same for each sequence of repetitions of the experiment. In the case of the jet of a piece for example, can we be sure that the proportion of piles on the first n jets will tend to reverse a given limit when n grows to infinity? Even if it converges to a certain value, can we be sure that we will get the same proportion of batteries again if the experiment is repeated a second time?

We did not use the classic approach because it involves a personal or interpersonal assessment of the effects of chance on future events. It is a kind of speculation about the future from the elements known or supposed to constitute the present. The notion of “probability” is associated with the notions of “chances”, “possibilities”, “hope”, “belief”, “credibility”, “trust”.

The “classic” definition is based on a postulate or principle: The events that can be observed at the end of a process where chance occurs (random experiment) are all reducible to a system of “cases” (the possible outcomes) of the same possibilities, or judged as such (equal probability postulated). This hypothesis depends on the capacities of the subject to analyze the different cases and to consider them as equivalent from the point of view of their possibilities. It is a Subjective (epistemic) approach.

The objective probability is the probability that can be verified empirically by the repetition of an experiment under the same conditions. The subjective probability is that which cannot or can hardly be confirmed by experience (Prasanta, 2011). Example: The probability that you pass your Bachelor Diploma this year is different from next year, assuming you have to pass the lass exam.

It is impossible, because the experiment cannot be repeated indefinitely. In addition, even if you had the opportunity to retake the exam one million times, you could not do it under the same conditions. If you attempt to pass the exam for the 10th time, you are far from the level you had at the first time; you no longer have the same age, the same stress. Therefore, you can only give subjective estimates based on your personal feeling of the type: “I worked well, I feel I will succeed I would say I have 80% chance. Subjective probability: the set of judgments carried by a hypothetical individual necessarily flows from the assumptions to which he freely indulges under conditions of uncertainty. Objective probability: which is based on something concrete, demonstrable, a proof, and a statistic for example.

Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the calculation of the probability of occurrence of a given event, expressed in numbers between 1 and 0. An event with a probability of 1 can be considered as a certainty (Pons, 2012). The approach used for a probability will change when the data change. Because Pioneer Aircraft Company only sale one type of aircraft, all its clients are those that are looking for the product on hands. If the company starts producing and selling aircrafts with GPS, Pioneer will attract more clients, enabling customers to have a choice selection. When the company starts offering a different type of planes to its customers, the probability for people to buy a plane with a build in GPS will affect the sales of the original aircrafts. However, the approach used to determine the probability would not change. An example is a coffee shop that only sale coffee will only see one probability in its business because people can only buy coffee in the coffee shop. However, when the company start selling espresso, the probability of people buying a coffee will change but the approach to determine the probability will not change.

References

Prasanta S., B. (2011). Philosophy of Statistics. [N.p.]: North Holland.

Pons, O. (2012). Inequalities In Analysis And Probability. Singapore: World Scientific.

Render, B., Stair, R. M., Jr., Hanna, M. E., & Hale, T. S. (2015). Quantitative analysis for management (12th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.

United, N. (2013). Guidelines on Integrated Economic Statistics. New York: United Nations Publications.

SAFEASSIGNCHECKTEST – CSU SAFEASSIGN PLAGIARISM CHECK TOOL

SafeAssign Originality Report Generator III

Remond Harvey

on Thu, May 28 2020, 12:08 PM

80%

highest match

Submission ID: 5d21b266-6b72-42ea-bb17-613e1d7aa2be

· finalassignment1 (1) x

Word Count: 1,411

Attachment ID: 3008892322

80%

Citations (3/3)

1. 1Another student’s paper

2. 2Another student’s paper

3. 3Another student’s paper

4.

1 Pioneer Aircraft Company stays closed for two weeks in a year.

It means out of fifty-two weeks of the year company remains in business for fifty weeks.

2 With this information provided, we can easily determine the probability of each number of planes that sold in during the year.

The number of planes sold 0 per week happened 40 times.

3 The probability for the company for selling 0 planes per week is equal to 40 weeks which is divided by the total number of business weeks which is fifty.

So in this, its probability is equal to 0.8.

3 Hence the probability of zero planes per week to sold is 0.8 in out of fifty business week period.

5.

2 With that information provided, we can easily determine the probability for complete information of each plane sold during by the year.

For a number of planes sold one in a week, that happened eight times in the year.

2 The probability for the company sold one plane in a week is equal to 8 weeks.

3 Hence in this number of weeks which is equal to 8 divided by total business weeks which is equal to fifty.

So we have a probability of 0.16.

2 Therefore probability for one plane sold in a week is equal to 0.16 in a total business week period.

6.

With that information provided, we can easily determine the probability for complete information of each plane sold during by the year.

For the number of planes two sold in a week that happened one time in the year.

The probability for the company sold two planes in a week is equal to 1 week.

Hence in this number of weeks which is equal to 1 divided by total business weeks which is equal to fifty. So we have a probability of 0.02.

2 Therefore probability for one plane sold in a week is equal to 0.02 in a total business week period.

7.

With the information provided, we can easily determine the probability for complete information of each plane sold during by the year.

For the number of planes three sold in a week that happened one time in the year.

The probability for the company sold three planes in a week is equal to 1 week.

Hence in this number of weeks which is equal to 1 divided by total business weeks which is equal to fifty. So we have a probability of 0.02. 2 Therefore probability for one plane sold in a week is equal to 0.02 in a total business week period.

8.

We used the relative frequency approach that we note that the idea of the relative frequency of event and models of long term behavior plays a vital role.

We use a “frequency approach” for the probability of event-based observations, and the relative frequency is convergence for an event that is repeated in random trials in order to understand the short-term unpredictability of the randomness phenomena and the long-term regularity that is a probability which describes.

And also the frequentist approach that will be useful in providing an approximation of a real probability which is a sufficiently large sample.

Then we will able to compare empirical result that is obtained by observation of frequencies, while the theoretical result obtained by observation of frequencies and the theoretical result obtained by that approach.

By observing divergence, it may help them to become aware of misconception.

One of the fundamental experiment Ω that is executed multiple times under similar conditions.

For each of event Y of Ω, n(Y) is the number of event Y that occurs during in first n repetitions of the experiment.

Some of the inconveniences that maybe not known if n(Y) will converge for a constant limit, and it will be the same for each sequence of duplications of the experiment.

In case of the jet, a piece for eg can be we sure that portion of piles on first n jets that will tend to reverse a given limit while n raises to infinity?

In case if it converges to a certain value, it can be sure that we will get the same proportion of batteries again experiment repeated for the second time?

9.

We did not use the classical approach because it involves personal or maybe interpersonal assessment for the effects of chance in future events.

It is kind of speculations for the future from elements that are known or supposed to constitute to present.

The concept of “probability” associated with the concept of “chances”, “occurrences”, “expectations”, “belief”, ”trust” and credibility.

2 “Classic” definition based on a principle.

The event that observed, in the end, is a process where changes occur in reducible to a system of “cases” for the same possibilities or judged.

2 The hypothesis depends on capacities of subject for analyzing in different cases and considers them in equivalent from the point of view of possibilities.

It is called Subjective approach.

10.

Objective probability is the probability that may be verified empirically by repletion in an experiment under the same conditions.

In the case of subjective probability, it cannot or can hardly be confirmed by experience.

For eg probability of you pass in your Master Diploma different from next year, let us assume you pass the last exam.

11.

It is not possible that the experiment not be repeated indefinitely.

In other words, if you had an opportunity to repeat the exam one million times, you could not do under the same conditions.

If you attempt it 9th time, you are away behind from level that you have from the first time;

2 you have no longer the same age and same stress.

So in this way you can only give subjective estimations that are based on your personal feelings of that type.

I work well and feel that I succeed that have 80% chance.

Subjective probability set of judgments that carried by hypothetically and individual importantly flow from assumptions to which freely indulges under uncertainty of conditions.

While in case of Objective Probability it is based on something that concrete and noticed a statistic for eg Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the calculation of the probability of occurrence of a given event, expressed in numbers between 1 and 0.

An event with a probability of 1 can be considered as a certainty.

Data change is directly related to the approach for probability where you use it. Because Pioneer company which builds aircraft sell an only single type of aircraft in their company, and all its client are looking for their product because it’s the only one with the quality product in the market competing.

2 If the company starts producing and selling aircraft with GPS, Pioneer will attract more clients, enabling customers to have a choice selection.

When the company starts offering a different type of planes to its customers, the probability for people to buy a plane with a build-in GPS will affect the sales of the original aircraft.

But the approach of using the probability for their use would not be affected at all, nor would it be changed.

2 An example is a coffee shop that only sale coffee will only see one probability in its business because people can only buy coffee in the coffee shop.

Whereas when the company starts their sales for espresso, the behavior or technique of people buying the product that is espresso coffee can be altered, but the basic technique of determining the probability cannot be changed. Another example of the probability for this case is the probability of picking a red marble out of a bowl with two red and eight green. So these type of examples helps us out in real-life solutions and problems too. Company’s selling techniques could easily be enhanced, and profit margins could increase by the increase of probability in selling aircraft to the clients.

12. Concluding the statements on the pioneer aircraft company holds a better position for the selling of aircraft when the probability of the selling aircraft are more if GPS includes the statement of purpose in selling area.

13. References

14.

2 Prasanta, S., B.

(2011).

2 Philosophy of Statistics.

[N.p.]: North Holland.

15. Pons, O. (2012).

2 Inequalities In Analysis And Probability.

Singapore: World Scientific.

16.

2 Render, B., Stair, R.

M., Jr., Hanna, M.

E., & Hale, T.

S. (2015).

2 Quantitative analysis for management (12th ed.).

Upper Saddle River, NJ:

Pearson.

17. United, N. (2013).

2 Guidelines on Integrated Economic Statistics.

New York:

2 United Nations Publications.